Iraq's Violence Spins Beyond Anyone's Control

t has been clear for some time that the U.S. is not in control of events in Iraq. But the latest sectarian bloodshed suggests that even help from Iran and Syria may not be enough to stop the slide into chaos.

If this week's announcement that President Bush is to meet Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in the capital of neighboring Jordan raised eyebrows, by Friday it was abundantly clear why the meeting couldn't be held in Baghdad â€” the Iraqi capital is under siege. After a day of open sectarian warfare on the streets had claimed more than 200 lives, the city's airport is closed and its residents are forced to remain indoors under a curfew.

source

NowPublic

Sphere: Related Content

Iraq's Violence Spins Beyond Anyone's Control

TONY KARON

It has been clear for some time that the U.S. is not in control of events in Iraq. But the latest sectarian bloodshed suggests that even help from Iran and Syria may not be enough to stop the slide into chaos.

If this week's announcement that President Bush is to meet Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in the capital of neighboring Jordan raised eyebrows, by Friday it was abundantly clear why the meeting couldn't be held in Baghdad — the Iraqi capital is under siege. After a day of open sectarian warfare on the streets had claimed more than 200 lives, the city's airport is closed and its residents are forced to remain indoors under a curfew.

The latest carnage comes as the focus on Iraq's immediate future shifts outside its borders — to U.S. discussions over redefining its strategy, moves by Iran and Syria to stake their own claim to a role in stabilizing Iraq, and perhaps, to competition between the two camps.

President Bush is due to meet Prime Minister Maliki against a backdrop in which U.S. officials are increasingly frustrated over the failure of the Iraqi government to act against the Shi'ite militias, which are answerable to parties in the ruling coalition. Washington views the dismantling of those militias as the key to achieving national reconciliation with the Sunnis and isolating the insurgency.

But following the latest attacks, the pressure on Maliki from his own base to resist U.S. demands will likely be greater than whatever leverage President Bush can bring to bear: The Iraqi leader has long made clear that he can only move against the Shi'ite militias after the Sunni insurgent threat has been removed, and the bloodshed in Sadr City Thursday will only reinforce that point. Indeed, Sadr's party threatened to quit the government if Maliki's meeting with Bush goes ahead next week — and Sadr's support has been critical to keeping him in power.

The latest escalation in bloodshed began with a two-hour siege Thursday by Sunni gunmen on the Ministry of Health; then suspected Sunni insurgents detonated a series of bombs in crowded places in Sadr City and other Shi'ite neighborhoods that killed more than 160 people. Shi'ite militiamen retaliated by firing mortars at mosques and other targets in neighboring Sunni suburbs. And tensions were further inflamed by an incident in which U.S. troops, searching in Sadr City for a kidnapped American soldier, fired on a van that refused to slow down in response to a signal, killing four civilians. The incident, which highlighted the ongoing U.S. campaign against elements of Sadr's army who they see as responsible for much of the sectarian violence, makes life even more difficult for Maliki.

It's a safe bet that those responsible for Thursday's bombings calculated their political effect — the most extreme wing of the Sunni insurgency, which routinely engages in the mass killing of Shi'ite civilians, has no interest in the success of a national reconciliation project in which they would be the big losers. And while Iraqi leaders issued by-now routine calls for reconciliation and calm, many observers feared that Thursday's bombings could have a similar effect to the bombing of the Shi'ite shrine at Samarra in the spring, which dramatically escalated the sectarian confrontation. It will certainly take more than a curfew to stop the cycle of retribution.

Iranian leaders, meanwhile, will host Iraq's President Jalal Talabani — with Syrian leaders possibly in attendance — on Saturday, in an initiative designed to showcase Iran's intention of playing a positive role in Iraq; the meeting will also not so subtly make the point that Tehran doesn't need Washington's permission to get involved. But even though Iran traditionally wields greater influence over the Shi'ite parties that dominate Iraq's government, it may have little to offer in the immediate crisis of sectarian escalation. Likewise Syria, whose contribution would be largely to tighten border security to prevent the trickle of foreign jihadists into the territory of its neighbor, may not be able to effect events on the ground as much it might like to think.

Iraq, after all, is already awash with weapons and fighters. And even the extent to which the Shi'ite political leadership is able to restrain the militias on the streets is an open question. Despite the best efforts of various, contending regional powers to shape events in Iraq, the escalating violence puts the momentum in the hands of Iraq's own contending factions. And their prospects for agreeing to a formula that can reverse the slide into full-scale civil war are not bright.

Sphere: Related Content

Lebanon Buries a Dream

As Pierre Gemayel is laid to rest and pro- and anti-Syrian factions square off for a confrontation, the modern Lebanese state appears to be on life-support.

The rituals of martyrdom are sadly familiar to the Lebanese: Barely hours after the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, billboard-sized posters with his portrait began appearing, as if, like obituary editors at a newspaper, Lebanese political parties keep the obligatory martyr poster of their leaders ready for the inevitable.

Thursday's funeral for Gemayel, one of Lebanon's most prominent Christian politicians, was burdened by more than a little bit of djvu. Gemayel is the latest of the country's anti-Syrian leaders to have died in a spate of assassinations which began last February with the car-bomb killing of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. As if in a repeat performance of the demonstrations that followed the Hariri funeral, hundreds of thousands of protestors filled central Beirut waving Lebanese flags and carrying catchy anti-Syrian slogans written in English. "Syria'l Killing Regime: Enough," read one.

source

NowPublic

Sphere: Related Content

Lebanon Buries a Dream

ANDREW LEE BUTTERS

As Pierre Gemayel is laid to rest and pro- and anti-Syrian factions square off for a confrontation, the modern Lebanese state appears to be on life-support.

The rituals of martyrdom are sadly familiar to the Lebanese: Barely hours after the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, billboard-sized posters with his portrait began appearing, as if, like obituary editors at a newspaper, Lebanese political parties keep the obligatory martyr poster of their leaders ready for the inevitable.

Thursday's funeral for Gemayel, one of Lebanon's most prominent Christian politicians, was burdened by more than a little bit of djvu. Gemayel is the latest of the country's anti-Syrian leaders to have died in a spate of assassinations which began last February with the car-bomb killing of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. As if in a repeat performance of the demonstrations that followed the Hariri funeral, hundreds of thousands of protestors filled central Beirut waving Lebanese flags and carrying catchy anti-Syrian slogans written in English. "Syria'l Killing Regime: Enough," read one.

But to a foreign observer, there was something startling about Friday's medieval pageantry. Inside the Maronite Catholic Cathedral of St. George, Lebanon's great and good gathered with their armed entourages in tow, like feudal barons reaffirming alliances over the body of a fallen comrade. Amid the burning incense and chants in arcane Assyrian, bishops stood beside generals, cowled monks hovered near women wearing black suits and sunglasses, in an epic panorama of old fashioned power politics.

In times of crisis, the Lebanese fall back on they institutions they know and trust — family, tribe, sect. And the anti-Syrian coalition is running scared. One priest captured the mood when his homily referred to the Crucifixion of Christ as a reminder that "we are all sheep waiting to be slaughtered." The day's events provided ample evidence that the modern Lebanese state — at the best of times a fragile French colonial bequest — is in crisis. The President of the Republic, the pro-Syrian Christian Emile Lahoud, was conspicuously absent from the funeral. Though the Lebanese Army and security services were out in force all over Beirut, individual bodyguards representing nothing more than the scion of some powerful family could be seen braying orders to gray-haired police generals. Even Gemayel's casket showed signs of schizophrenia — half-draped in the Lebanese cedar tree flag, half-covered by the flag of the Phalange, the Christian party he led.

A weakened Lebanese state is not, of course, what Gemayel's supporters and the other allies of anti-Syrian Prime Minister Fouad Siniora want. Their efforts after the Hariri assassination pushed the Syrian army out of Lebanon, ending an occupation that began in 1976. And they hope that the United Nations' investigations into the assassinations that have plagued Lebanon will remove what they see as the dread hand of Syria's intelligence services from its hold on Lebanese affairs. Speakers at today's funeral called on protestors to remain in Beirut's Martyr's Square until the establishment of just such a UN tribunal.

But the pro- and anti- Syrian divide in Lebanon has taken on a sectarian tone, which bodes ill for a country that is an amalgam of rival religious groups with a history of civil strife. Though the anti-Syrian Siniora government is backed by a coalition of Sunni Muslims, Druze Muslims, and many Christians, Lebanon's Shi'ite Muslims, the country's largest sect, have long looked to Syria for protection and patronage. Syria supplies Hizballah, the largest Shi'ite party, with money and weapons that it uses to fight Israel. Hizballah suspects Siniora's anti-Syrian crusade to be a cover for collaborating with Israel and the United States to disarm it. There was not a Shi'ite banner or headscarf in sight in the crowd outside the Gemayel funeral.

But there will be plenty in Beirut soon. Hizballah has promised its own demonstrations, aimed at bringing down Sinoira's government and replacing it with a government of "National Unity" in which they are better represented, as a reward for their so called "Divine Victory" against Israel this summer. The prospect of demonstrations and counterdemonstrations paralyzing the country has each side declaring that its intentions are peaceful, but preparing for the opposite.

"We are ready for them," said an official in Gemayel's Phalangist party. "We don't have weapons, and rockets and artillery like they do. But when went through a 15-year civil war and we know how to fight. We don't want to. But we are ready to."

Sphere: Related Content

Today in history - Nov. 24

The Associated Press

Today is Friday, Nov. 24, the 328th day of 2006. There are 37 days left in the year.

Today's Highlight in History:

On Nov. 24, 1963, Jack Ruby shot and mortally wounded Lee Harvey Oswald, the accused assassin of President Kennedy, in a scene captured on live television.

On this date:

In 1784, Zachary Taylor, the 12th president of the United States, was born in Orange County, Va.

In 1859, British naturalist Charles Darwin published "On the Origin of Species," which explained his theory of evolution.

In 1863, the Civil War battle for Lookout Mountain began in Tennessee; Union forces succeeded in taking the mountain from the Confederates.

In 1944, during World War II, U.S. bombers based on Saipan attacked Tokyo in the first raid against the Japanese capital by land-based planes.

In 1950, the musical "Guys and Dolls," based on the writings of Damon Runyon and featuring songs by Frank Loesser, opened on Broadway.

In 1969, Apollo 12 splashed down safely in the Pacific.

In 1971, hijacker "D.B. Cooper" parachuted from a Northwest Airlines 727 over Washington state with $200,000 in ransom — his fate remains unknown.

In 1985, the hijacking of an EgyptAir jetliner parked on the ground in Malta ended violently as Egyptian commandos stormed the plane. Fifty-eight people died in the raid, in addition to two others killed by the hijackers.

In 1987, the United States and the Soviet Union agreed to scrap shorter- and medium-range missiles.

In 1991, rock singer Freddie Mercury died in London at age 45 of AIDS-related pneumonia.

Ten years ago: On the eve of an Asia-Pacific trade conference in the Philippines, President Clinton met with Chinese President Jiang Zemin. Both sides signaled their troubled relations were on the mend, and agreed to exchange presidential visits over the next two years.

Five years ago: A Swiss airliner carrying 33 people crashed near Zurich, killing 24, including American pop singer Melanie Thornton. British actress Rachel Gurney, who played Lady Marjorie Bellamy on the popular television series "Upstairs Downstairs," died at age 81.

One year ago: A suicide bomber struck outside a hospital south of Baghdad while U.S. troops were handing out candy and food to children; the blast killed some 30 people. A giant balloon in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York snagged a street light and caused part of it to fall, injuring a woman and a child. Actor Pat Morita died in Las Vegas at age 73.

Today's Birthdays: Columnist William F. Buckley is 81. Country singer Johnny Carver is 66. Rock-and-roll drummer Pete Best is 65. Rock musician Donald "Duck" Dunn (Booker T. & the MG's) is 65. Actor-comedian Billy Connolly is 64. Former White House news secretary Marlin Fitzwater is 64. Motion Picture Association of America President Dan Glickman is 62. Singer Lee Michaels is 61. Actor Dwight Schultz is 59. Actor Stanley Livingston is 56. Rock musician Clem Burke (Blondie; The Romantics) is 51. Record producer Terry Lewis is 50. Actress Denise Crosby is 49. Actress Shae D'Lyn is 44. Rock musician John Squire (The Stone Roses) is 44. Rock musician Gary Stonadge (Big Audio) is 44. Rock musician Chad Taylor (Live) is 36. Actress Lola Glaudini is 35. Actor Colin Hanks is 29. Actress Katherine Heigl is 28.

Thought for Today: "Slander injures three: the slanderer, the person who hears the slander, and the person slandered." — From the Talmud, a collection of writings that constitute the Jewish civil and religious law.

Sphere: Related Content

Today in history - Nov. 24

Today is Friday, Nov. 24, the 328th day of 2006. There are 37 days left in the year.

Today's Highlight in History:

On Nov. 24, 1963, Jack Ruby shot and mortally wounded Lee Harvey Oswald, the accused assassin of President Kennedy, in a scene captured on live television.

On this date:

In 1784, Zachary Taylor, the 12th president of the United States, was born in Orange County, Va.

In 1859, British naturalist Charles Darwin published "On the Origin of Species," which explained his theory of evolution.

In 1863, the Civil War battle for Lookout Mountain began in Tennessee; Union forces succeeded in taking the mountain from the Confederates.

source

NowPublic

Sphere: Related Content

The First Thanksgiving

In 1621 the Plymouth colonists and the Wampanoag Indians shared an autumn harvest feast which is now known as the first Thanksgiving. While cooking methods and table etiquette have changed as the holiday has evolved, the meal is still consumed today with the same spirit of celebration and overindulgence.

Red Baron

Food preparation

What Was Actually on the Menu?

What foods topped the table at the first harvest feast? Historians aren't completely certain about the full bounty, but it's safe to say the pilgrims weren't gobbling up pumpkin pie or playing with their mashed potatoes. Following is a list of the foods that were available to the colonists at the time of the 1621 feast. However, the only two items that historians know for sure were on the menu are venison and wild fowl, which are mentioned in primary sources. The most detailed description of the "First Thanksgiving" comes from Edward Winslow from A Journal of the Pilgrims at Plymouth, in 1621:

source

NowPublic

Sphere: Related Content

The First Thanksgiving

In 1621 the Plymouth colonists and the Wampanoag Indians shared an autumn harvest feast which is now known as the first Thanksgiving. While cooking methods and table etiquette have changed as the holiday has evolved, the meal is still consumed today with the same spirit of celebration and overindulgence.

Red Baron

Food preparation

What Was Actually on the Menu?

What foods topped the table at the first harvest feast? Historians aren't completely certain about the full bounty, but it's safe to say the pilgrims weren't gobbling up pumpkin pie or playing with their mashed potatoes. Following is a list of the foods that were available to the colonists at the time of the 1621 feast. However, the only two items that historians know for sure were on the menu are venison and wild fowl, which are mentioned in primary sources. The most detailed description of the "First Thanksgiving" comes from Edward Winslow from A Journal of the Pilgrims at Plymouth, in 1621:

source

NowPublic

Sphere: Related Content

Lebanon's Cabinet Ministers Wonder Who Could Be Next

The murder of an anti-Syrian leader means that the removal of just two more cabinet ministers would bring down the government. And that, many Lebanese believe, is precisely what the killers intend.

The killing on Tuesday of industry minister and anti-Syrian legislator Pierre Gemayel is a stark reminder that Lebanon's politicians remain as vulnerable as ever despite an array of security precautions. Some spend most of their time in well-protected homes surrounded by sealed-off streets; others rely on armed bodyguards or have switched smoked-glass limousines for nondescript vehicles or armor-plated SUVs. Mosbah Ahdab, a Sunni legislator from Tripoli and a member of the anti-Syrian parliamentary bloc, has lived under the threat of assassination for more than two years. "I take precautions," he says in an interview with TIME. "We have so many people calling us all the time saying be careful, not to be loud."

source

NowPublic

Sphere: Related Content

Lebanon's Cabinet Ministers Wonder Who Could Be Next

NICHOLAS BLANFORD

The murder of an anti-Syrian leader means that the removal of just two more cabinet ministers would bring down the government. And that, many Lebanese believe, is precisely what the killers intend.

The killing on Tuesday of industry minister and anti-Syrian legislator Pierre Gemayel is a stark reminder that Lebanon's politicians remain as vulnerable as ever despite an array of security precautions. Some spend most of their time in well-protected homes surrounded by sealed-off streets; others rely on armed bodyguards or have switched smoked-glass limousines for nondescript vehicles or armor-plated SUVs. Mosbah Ahdab, a Sunni legislator from Tripoli and a member of the anti-Syrian parliamentary bloc, has lived under the threat of assassination for more than two years. "I take precautions," he says in an interview with TIME. "We have so many people calling us all the time saying be careful, not to be loud."

In September 2004, Ahdab broke a taboo by publicly announcing that he had received anonymous death threats intended to pressure him into voting for a controversial three-year extension of the presidency of the pro-Syrian incumbent, Emile Lahoud. Ahdab ignored the threats and voted against the extension. He was not the only politician under pressure. Then-Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri was allegedly directly threatened by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad to support Lahoud's extension, despite his deep opposition to the move.

Lahoud won his extra three years anyway, setting Lebanon on a perilous path of confrontation between allies of Syria and its opponents that led to Hariri's murder in a massive bomb blast five months later. And two years on, that confrontation appears to still be taking a deadly toll. Gemayel's murder has brought Lebanon's Western-backed government dangerously close to collapse. Six pro-Syrian Shi'ite ministers quit the 24-member coalition cabinet a week ago after their bid for extra seats that would give them a veto-wielding one-third stake in the government was rebuffed. Now, following Gemayel's murder, it will take the resignation — or death — of two more ministers to bring down the government, which occurs legally when it loses more than one third of its ministers.

"Its more than ever obvious that they are trying to reduce the majority in the government either by another resignation or assassination," says Ahdab. The ministerial resignations came on the eve of a cabinet discussion to endorse draft United Nations statutes for the creation of an international tribunal to judge Hariri's assassins. With Damascus widely blamed for the killing, Ahdab says the resignations of the pro-Syrian ministers were carefully timed. "They [quit] so they didn't have to ratify what came from the U.N.," he says.

The statutes have been endorsed by the depleted government and the U.N. Security Council greenlighted the final version on Tuesday. The resolution now has to be passed by the Lebanese government and ratified by parliament before taking effect. Then there are other potential blocks to the adoption of the resolution: Nabih Berri, the Speaker of parliament and an ally of Hizballah, could delay calling a session to vote on the resolution, which requires a simple majority to pass. Then again, President Lahoud could freeze passage by simply refusing to sign the bill.

With the government under threat, Ahdab says it is a race to pass the international tribunal before another minister is killed. "We have to move very quickly in the government while we still have the two-thirds majority," he says, adding that the establishment of the international tribunal should help "put a limit" on the assassinations and help stabilize the country.

Still, Ahdab, a multi-lingual businessman from a prominent Tripoli family, believes the root of Lebanon's political crisis lies in a fundamental disagreement over the future identity of Lebanon. Does Lebanon want to remain a pluralistic, open society or join the Syrian-Iranian alliance of anti-Western states? he asks. "An agreement is needed on what kind of Lebanon we want for the future," he says. Until that happens, Ahdab and his political colleagues will continue to remain vigilant and wary of the threat that lurks in Lebanon's darker corners.

Sphere: Related Content

Today in history - Nov. 23

Today is Thursday, Nov. 23, the 327th day of 2006. There are 38 days left in the year. This is Thanksgiving Day.

Today's Highlight in History:

Nov. 23, 1945, was the last day of most U.S. wartime rationing of foods, including meat and butter.

On this date:

In 1765, Frederick County, Md., repudiated the British Stamp Act.

In 1804, the 14th president of the United States, Franklin Pierce, was born in Hillsboro, N.H.

In 1903, singer Enrico Caruso made his American debut at the Metropolitan Opera House in New York, appearing in "Rigoletto."

In 1936, Life, the photojournalism magazine created by Henry R. Luce, was first published.

source

NowPublic

Sphere: Related Content

Today in history - Nov. 23

The Associated Press

Today is Thursday, Nov. 23, the 327th day of 2006. There are 38 days left in the year. This is Thanksgiving Day.

Today's Highlight in History:

Nov. 23, 1945, was the last day of most U.S. wartime rationing of foods, including meat and butter.

On this date:

In 1765, Frederick County, Md., repudiated the British Stamp Act.

In 1804, the 14th president of the United States, Franklin Pierce, was born in Hillsboro, N.H.

In 1903, singer Enrico Caruso made his American debut at the Metropolitan Opera House in New York, appearing in "Rigoletto."

In 1936, Life, the photojournalism magazine created by Henry R. Luce, was first published.

In 1943, during World War II, U.S. forces seized control of Tarawa and Makin atolls from the Japanese.

In 1959, the musical "Fiorello!," with music by Jerry Bock and lyrics by Sheldon Harnick, opened on Broadway.

In 1963, President Johnson proclaimed Nov. 25 a day of national mourning following the assassination of President Kennedy.

In 1971, the People's Republic of China was seated in the U.N. Security Council.

In 1980, some 2,600 people were killed by a series of earthquakes that devastated southern Italy.

In 1985, retired CIA analyst Larry Wu-tai Chin was arrested and accused of spying for China. (He committed suicide a year after his conviction.)

Ten years ago: A hijacked Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 767 crashed into the waves off Comoros Islands, killing 125 of the 175 people on board. Forty-four people were injured when an Amtrak train derailed on a Secaucus, N.J., bridge. Following a four-day visit to Australia, President Clinton arrived in the Philippines for a summit of Asian-Pacific leaders.

Five years ago: The U.N. war crimes tribunal said it would try former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic for genocide in Bosnia, linking him for the first time in court to the murders of thousands of non-Serbs and the displacement of a quarter million people. (Milosevic died in March 2006 while his trial was in progress.) An Israeli helicopter fired two missiles at a van in the West Bank, killing Mahmoud Abu Hanoud, a leading member of the Islamic militant Hamas group.

One year ago: In Iraq, gunmen broke into the home of a senior Sunni Arab leader and killed him, his three sons and his son-in-law. A commuter train slammed into several vehicles caught in a traffic jam on a busy road in Elmwood Park, Ill., starting a chain reaction that injured at least 10 people. American-born actress Constance Cummings died in Oxfordshire, England, at age 95.

Today's Birthdays: Actor Michael Gough is 89. Broadway composer Jerry Bock is 78. Former Labor Secretary William E. Brock is 76. Actor Franco Nero is 65. Screenwriter Joe Eszterhas is 62. Actress Susan Anspach is 61. Actor Steve Landesberg is 61. Singer Bruce Hornsby is 52. Sen. Mary Landrieu (news, bio, voting record), D-La., is 51. Actor Maxwell Caulfield is 47. Actor John Henton is 46. TV personality Robin Roberts ("Good Morning America") is 46. Rock singer-musician Ken Block (Sister Hazel) is 40. Rock musician Charlie Grover is 40. Actress Salli Richardson-Whitfield is 39. Actor Oded Fehr is 36. Rapper Kurupt (Tha Dogg Pound) is 34. Actor Page Kennedy is 30. Actress Kelly Brook is 27. Actress Miley Cyrus (TV: "Hannah Montana") is 14. Actor Austin Majors is 11.

Thought for Today: "The ultimate aim of the human mind, in all its efforts, is to become acquainted with Truth." — Eliza Farnham, American reformer (1815-1864).

Sphere: Related Content

Four teens arrested in armed robbery near Monon Apts.

Police arrested four teens suspected of robbing a man near the Monon Apartments.

It happened Tuesday night around 8:00 pm in the 5900 block of Carvel Avenue. Police say four men robbed a 22-year-old man at gunpoint. Investigators say the suspects got away with a wallet that contained four dollars, a debit card and credit card.

Police captured the suspects. They face charges of armed robbery.

Police are now trying to figure out if the teens arrested Tuesday night are involved in a weekend robbery just a block away.

source

NowPublic

Sphere: Related Content

Gemayel Murder Portends New Bloodshed in Lebanon

ANDREW LEE BUTTERS

Even before the killing of a key Christian politician, Beirut was primed for trouble. Now, it may be hard to avoid confrontation.

The streets of Beirut filled with cars fleeing the city as soon as news spread that one of Lebanon's most prominent Christian politicians, Pierre Gemayel, had been assassinated in the capital. The killing of his uncle, President Bashir Gemayel, in 1982, marked the beginning of a particularly bloody chapter in Lebanon's 15-year Civil War. And the fear now spreading through the country is that this latest attack could usher in a similar period of heightened violence.

Pierre Gemayel, the son and nephew of former presidents, had been the Minister of Industry in the fragile anti-Syrian ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Foaud Siniora. That government was already on the verge of collapse, following the resignation last week of all the Shi'ite ministers in his cabinet after Hizballah accused Siniora and his allies of collaborating with the United States and Israel in this summer's war.

Hizballah and the pro-Syrian opposition have promised mass demonstrations and strikes, perhaps as early as Thursday, to press their demand for the government's resignation and replacement by a cabinet in which they have greater representation. The government's supporters have promised counter demonstrations. Now, the death of Gemayel raises the prospect of a confrontation between the two sides. Already, supporters of Gemayel have rioted in the streets around the hospital that contains his remains.

With more mayhem likely, locall suspicion for Gemayel's murder falls on those who would most benefit from instability in Lebanon. Siniora's allies blame Syria, whom they also accuse of assassinating former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005. Since Hariri's death, a bombing campaign has killed or injured a series of anti-Syrian politicians and journalists. The last murder, of newspaper publisher Gebran Tueni, took place in December of last year.

But it is unlikely that any of these killings could have taken place without at least the assistance of some parties or factions within Lebanon. Many of the killings have been sophisticated well-timed operations that bear the hallmarks of a highly trained intelligence organization. Several former leaders of Lebanon's own police and security services are in prison in this country under suspicion for involvement in the Hariri assassination. Hizballah, which itself has this kind of operational capability, has accused Israel of staging these assassinations to sow disunity.

While the identity of Gemayel's killers remains a matter of speculation, what is clear is that the stakes are getting higher for Siniora. By tradition, the Lebanese cabinet contains members of all the country's main sectarian groupings. Without any ministers who are Shi'ite — Lebanon's largest community — the legitimacy of his government is open to question. And if the government can't maintain security — or even protect its own officials — many Lebanese may turn to someone who can.

Sphere: Related Content

Pelosi's Next Big Call

The incoming House Speaker already made a questionable move backing the losing candidate in the race for Majority Leader. Will she stumble again by choosing a member with a checkered past to lead the House Intelligence Committee?

Speaker-to-be Nancy Pelosi, who stumbled badly last week when she publicly backed the failed candidacy of Rep. John Murtha for majority leader, could be headed for another political tumble if she presses ahead with long-standing plans to elevate Rep. Alcee Hastings, a senior Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, to the panel's chairmanship.

source

NowPublic

Sphere: Related Content

In Venezuela, It's Vote for Chavez — Or Else

With only two weeks to go until election day, the radical leftist leader is fending off his opponents with a divide-and-conquer strategy .

If you're an employee of the Venezuelan state oil company, you better vote for President Hugo Chavez when he stands for reelection next month â€”or you might lose your job.

Under Chavez's rule, this might appear to be simply an unspoken commandment. After all, the halls of state companies and ministries are covered in Chavez paraphernalia and many employees religiously wear red, the color of the leftist leader's "Bolivarian Revolution." But this blunt message was actually delivered by Rafael Ramirez, Chavez's energy minister and president of state oil company PDVSA, to company directors in a recent closed meeting captured on video and released to the media by Chavez's opponents. The apparent ultimatum poured salt on the opposition's wounds from 2003, when Chavez purged the company of dissidents after they led a devastating national oil strike. "We threw 19,500 enemies of the country out of this company," Ramirez said with remarkable candor in the video, "and we're prepared to keep doing it to guarantee that this company is aligned and corresponds with the love that the people have expressed for our president."

source

NowPublic

Sphere: Related Content

Pelosi's Next Big Call

TIMOTHY J. BURGER

The incoming House Speaker already made a questionable move backing the losing candidate in the race for Majority Leader. Will she stumble again by choosing a member with a checkered past to lead the House Intelligence Committee?

Speaker-to-be Nancy Pelosi, who stumbled badly last week when she publicly backed the failed candidacy of Rep. John Murtha for majority leader, could be headed for another political tumble if she presses ahead with long-standing plans to elevate Rep. Alcee Hastings, a senior Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, to the panel's chairmanship.

A Democratic aide says Pelosi has not decided who she will name as chairman of the intelligence panel, but that she was leaning against the current top Democrat, Rep. Jane Harman. Her preferred nominee has long been Hastings, but like Murtha he has his own ethically challenged history. And while the broad outlines of that past are well known, the grimy specifics are only now emerging.

Hastings was elected to Congress in 1992, but his first big moment on Capitol Hill came three years before that. Appointed as a federal judge in Florida in 1979, Hastings had been acquitted in a 1983 criminal trial on charges of soliciting a $150,000 bribe two years earlier in a deal to provide favorable treatment for defendants in a racketeering case before him. Despite his being legally cleared, Congress determined that the evidence against Hastings was still powerful enough to remove him from the bench, which the Senate voted to do in 1989 — even though Senators Arlen Specter and Jeff Bingaman, the top Republican and Democrat who supervised the proceedings, voted against expelling Hastings from office. The impeachment proceedings were later invalidated by an appeals court judge in 1993, although that ruling was itself later vitiated by the Supreme Court. Reports on those impeachment proceedings were posted Monday evening on the blog of the left-of-center ethics watchdog, Committee for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, fleshing out the details of an episode that Hastings, and surely Pelosi, would much rather forget.

How important is a case dating back to the 1980s and Hastings' prior, ill-fated career as a judge? Well, at least Hastings seems to realize that it won't be so easily dismissed as ancient history. He recently sent Pelosi a five-page open letter explaining his side of the story — and appended the statements of Senators Specter and Bingaman.

At the time of the impeachment proceedings, Rep. John Conyers, on track to become the House Judiciary Committee chairman, said that he didn't like what that panel's investigation showed about Hastings. "In my mind, the facts that we have educed,(sic) the witnesses that we have heard, the voluminous records that we have read and re-examined, convince me that Judge Hastings has regrettably engaged in conduct constituting high crimes and misdemeanors and that therefore we should vote this resolution of impeachment," Conyers said in the proceeding almost 20 years ago. Befitting the political and legal complexities of the case, Conyers has since tempered his remarks, thanks in part to a subsequent scandal involving the FBI lab which handled some of the Hastings evidence. Still, an aide declined to explain to TIME Conyers' current position.

Pelosi has for quite some time put out signals that she will replace Harman as the top Democrat on the panel in order to maintain a traditional rotation in the spot. But Democratic insiders say her motivation is far more personal — as was Pelosi's support of Murtha against her nemesis of several years, incoming Majority Leader Steny Hoyer. Harman defenders say Pelosi's complaints either stem from an unworthy catfight among leading California congresswomen; Harman's close relationship with Hoyer; or Harman's efforts to seem bipartisan on controversial issues such as the administration's controversial domestic warrantless wiretapping — when Pelosi wanted a Democratic pit bull in the party's top intelligence post.

Moreover, as was first reported on TIME.com a month ago, Harman has been under investigation by the Justice Department over her links to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, and whether they made a deal, in part, to have AIPAC supporters lobby Pelosi to keep Harman on as the Democrats' top member of the committee. Both Harman and AIPAC have vehemently denied they did anything wrong and U.S. officials have said they do not necessarily expect that charges will be brought.

The dusty congressional report on Hastings dates back 18 years and the furtive actions outlined in it are some 25 years old. But details of the seedy tale, as presented in the report, may capture Washington's attention more now than they did the first time around: an intermediary seeking an alleged $150,000 payoff for Hastings, a tipoff to Hastings that an associate had been arrested, followed by a frantic cab ride from Washington to the Baltimore airport — instead of nearby National Airport, allegedly to throw off any possible pursuers.

In the wake of the downfall of intelligence committee Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham — who is in prison after being convicted for his role in a very different scandal, involving alleged seven-figure payoffs by defense contractors — the way Congress handles the Hastings saga should shine still more light on problems with how the two parties appoint and re-appoint rank-and-file members of such a sensitive committee. If Democrats found Hastings fit to serve as a member of the intelligence committee at all, many would argue, they should be able to consider him for the chairmanship. As a panel member, Hastings has been deeply immersed in classified information for years, traveling to dozens of the CIA's secret overseas stations and bases, all with no allegation of misconduct in that role (though, to be sure, there have occasionally been Republican whispers that they didn't fully trust him).

Pelosi may has few good options in the current dilemma. If she decides to replace Harman with someone other than Hastings, she could easily offend the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC), which has insisted that Hastings' seniority entitles him to the position. But some aides have also rumored that there might be another solution: installing a former panel member, Georgia Rep. Sanford Bishop, who is also African-American, in place of either Harman or Hastings. Whatever happens, one thing is clear; after her Murtha debacle, Pelosi — and the Democrats for that matter — cannot afford another misstep so early in her tenure.

Sphere: Related Content

In Venezuela, It's Vote for Chavez — Or Else

JENS ERIK GOULD

With only two weeks to go until election day, the radical leftist leader is fending off his opponents with a divide-and-conquer strategy .

If you're an employee of the Venezuelan state oil company, you better vote for President Hugo Chavez when he stands for reelection next month —or you might lose your job.

Under Chavez's rule, this might appear to be simply an unspoken commandment. After all, the halls of state companies and ministries are covered in Chavez paraphernalia and many employees religiously wear red, the color of the leftist leader's "Bolivarian Revolution." But this blunt message was actually delivered by Rafael Ramirez, Chavez's energy minister and president of state oil company PDVSA, to company directors in a recent closed meeting captured on video and released to the media by Chavez's opponents. The apparent ultimatum poured salt on the opposition's wounds from 2003, when Chavez purged the company of dissidents after they led a devastating national oil strike. "We threw 19,500 enemies of the country out of this company," Ramirez said with remarkable candor in the video, "and we're prepared to keep doing it to guarantee that this company is aligned and corresponds with the love that the people have expressed for our president."

With the December 3 election now less than two weeks away, the rift between devotees and foes of Chavez is widening. Chavez, who famously called President Bush "the devil" at the United Nations, will face opposition candidate Manuel Rosales, who Chavez accuses of being backed by the "empire," — in other words, the United States. For his part, Rosales says he will tackle the country's rampant crime and corruption problems, end Chavez's abundant aid to other leftist countries like Cuba and stop basing the distribution of government funding at home on political loyalty.

Government slogans, mind you, don't reflect Venezuela's divisions —they would have you believe that this country lives in harmony. Logos that read "Venezuela: now it's for everyone" and "PDVSA is of the people" line roads and subways stations across Caracas. But for someone who preaches the virtues of integration in Latin America, Chavez has no qualms about sowing division within his own country.

While it's true that he has inspired more political and community participation among the lower classes, most activities sponsored by the state are heavily politicized. At a ceremony held this month to hand over workers' permits to employees of the state oil company, 600 oil workers in red shirts and caps chanted "They won't come back!" — a reference to Chavez opponents who used to manage the company. Countless people who signed in favor of holding a referendum to oust Chavez in 2004 have claimed they have been blacklisted from getting a government job. A foundation for homeless children organized by the Caracas mayor's office even had their kids write get-well letters to Fidel Castro, Chavez's closest ally, when the Cuban leader fell sick earlier this year.

Chavistas and the opposition fight over everything, including colors. The Chavez-aligned party Fatherhood for All recently demanded the Supreme Court prohibit Rosales' campaign from using the color blue, arguing they had already claimed it. The court rejected the appeal. Not even Venezuela's biggest sports rivalry — a match-up between the Caracas and Valencia baseball teams — could compete with the country's political duel. A packed game in Caracas earlier this month erupted with rallying cries from Rosales supporters and retorts from chavista baseball fans when the opposition candidate appeared in the stands. So loud was the political disturbance that players stopped the game momentarily.

In this heated and polarized environment, conflicts and disturbances that seemingly have very little to do with national politics are often framed as a government-versus-opposition feud. When police injured eight people in a clash after fishermen seized a local port in the sleepy eastern town of Guiria, the local governor, a Chavez ally, was quick to blame the violence on "a group of people who want to destabilize the country." But when asked, fishermen said the conflict was far from political. They just wanted to be able to use their ice plant again, they said, since the port authority had shut it down. And while the opposition did paralyze the oil industry during strikes in 2002 and 2003, the national oil company has continued to blame accidents at its installations on "sabotage" rather than concede that they could be company blunders.

Chavez certainly has reason to be suspicious of the opposition. His opponents first tried undemocratic means to get rid him — through a coup and strikes — before failing to oust him democratically in a recall referendum in 2004. Chavez's opponents further dug themselves into a hole when they boycotted parliamentary elections last year, leaving the legislature completely controlled by Chavez allies. And though the opposition-backed private media has cooled down since the days of the coup, its reporting is often heavily slanted against Chavez.

But Chavez's heavy-handed governance has also helped fuel the opposition. Praising Ramirez for his speech caught on tape, Chavez suggested jokingly that his minister be nominated for a Nobel Prize in publicity for inventing a phrase that calls the company's color "red, very red." He urged Ramirez to repeat his remarks "100 times more" and bragged that other institutions like the military also supported his revolution.

Chavez was asked in a recent press conference with foreign media if he would try to incorporate the alienated opposition into politics if he wins on December 3rd, which most polls are predicting he will, by a margin of 15 to 20%. He replied that his government didn't intentionally exclude anyone, saying it was the opposition's own fault they didn't have representation in the legislature after they organized the election boycott last year. "I ask the sectors of the opposition to assume their democratic responsibilities," he said. Many Venezuelans wish both political camps would take that advice to heart, but clearly they have a long way to go.

Sphere: Related Content

Why the U.S. and South Korea Don't See Eye to Eye

Rather than help the U.S., the APEC summit showed how Pyongyang has driven a wedge between Washington and its traditional ally South Korea.

Five years ago, the Presidents and prime ministers of the 21 countries that make up the forum for Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) gathered for the first time in the shadow of the war on terror. The host city back then was Shanghai, and the Chinese had hoped the APEC summit would be a historic coming out party for the gleaming symbol of their reignited capitalist fervor. Given the timing â€” two months after September 11, 2001â€” it didn't quite work out like that.

President Bush just left the latest APEC meeting, this one held in another one-party Communist country â€” Vietnam â€” hoping to impress the world with its own recent embrace of capitalism. And once again, five years on, it was the war on terror, and its consequences, that sucked the oxygen out of the conference rooms. In fact, what people may remember most about this APEC meeting is that it became painfully obvious just how successful Kim Jong Il â€” charter member of the "axis of evil" â€” has been at driving a wedge between the United States and its ostensible ally in Seoul.

source

NowPublic

Sphere: Related Content

Why the U.S. and South Korea Don't See Eye to Eye

BILL POWELL

Rather than help the U.S., the APEC summit showed how Pyongyang has driven a wedge between Washington and its traditional ally South Korea.

Five years ago, the Presidents and prime ministers of the 21 countries that make up the forum for Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) gathered for the first time in the shadow of the war on terror. The host city back then was Shanghai, and the Chinese had hoped the APEC summit would be a historic coming out party for the gleaming symbol of their reignited capitalist fervor. Given the timing — two months after September 11, 2001— it didn't quite work out like that.

President Bush just left the latest APEC meeting, this one held in another one-party Communist country — Vietnam — hoping to impress the world with its own recent embrace of capitalism. And once again, five years on, it was the war on terror, and its consequences, that sucked the oxygen out of the conference rooms. In fact, what people may remember most about this APEC meeting is that it became painfully obvious just how successful Kim Jong Il — charter member of the "axis of evil" — has been at driving a wedge between the United States and its ostensible ally in Seoul.

For his entire second term, as Iraq has gone from bad to worse, the President has desperately sought to cajole the other great powers to join him to help deter North Korea and Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Iran is still a slow-motion work-in-progress, but the effort to deter Pyongyang from getting nukes failed. It's now about persuading Kim Jong Il to stand down his nukes in return for all sorts of unspecified economic and diplomatic goodies. But as the APEC meeting showed, on this matter South Korea and China have practically switched their standard roles of U.S. ally and irritant in the region.

The good news out of Hanoi, after all, is that China, North Korea's primary benefactor, still seems more determined than it had been before Pyongyang's July 4 missile test last summer to rein in Kim's nuclear program. An Administration official said the U.S., China and Japan "see eye to eye" on their carrot and stick approach to the North. Given that China and Japan pretty much don't agree on anything — save the benefits of running mind-bending trade surpluses with the United States — that's progress.

The bad news, however, is that South Korea — ostensibly (and unlike China) a close U.S. ally — was notably absent from the "eye to eye" crowd. South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun, like Bush, a lame duck whose party has taken a drubbing in midterm elections, is determined to pursue his country's "Sunshine Policy" toward the North — all carrots and virtually no stick — no matter what. At multilateral meetings like APEC, he's effectively become a more effective stand-in for Kim Jong Il and his agenda than Chinese premier Hu Jintao.

Pressed by Bush to take a more proactive stance in the so called Proliferation Security Initiative against the North — which seeks to prevent WMD proliferation by interdicting ships if necessary — Roh demurred. The South Korean government issued an extraordinarily mealy-mouthed statement, saying that it "supported" the "goals" of PSI — but wouldn't actually do anything when it comes to interdicting North Korean ships. At least the Roh government is pretty straightforward about the reason: It says it's afraid of provoking the North into a war.

For the same reason, South Korea had avoided, until earlier this month, voting on U.N. condemnations of North Korea's human rights record, which next to Sudan is about the worst on the planet. One bitter human rights campaigner told TIME last month that for all South Korea cares, "Kim Jong Il could personally drop North Korean citizens from a helicopter into boiling vats of acid — just as long as he didn't by mistake drop one over the 38th parallel [into South Korea."] Now that South Korean Ban Ki Moon is Kofi Annan's designated successor as U.N. Secretary General, the Seoul government couldn't quite bring itself to abstain from a resolution criticizing Pyongyang earlier this month. But make no mistake; South Korea's See No Evil, Speak No Evil, Hear No Evil stance toward the North is still in place, and it couldn't be more out of sync with Bush's.

Roh and Bush had a sideline summit in Hanoi, which both sides tried, as usual, to put the best face on. But there's genuine reason for skepticism as to just how united a front the U.S. and its partners will present when the North finally shows up (as it has said it will) for the next round of "six-party talks" about its nukes.

Sphere: Related Content