Iraq's Violence Spins Beyond Anyone's Control

t has been clear for some time that the U.S. is not in control of events in Iraq. But the latest sectarian bloodshed suggests that even help from Iran and Syria may not be enough to stop the slide into chaos.


If this week's announcement that President Bush is to meet Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in the capital of neighboring Jordan raised eyebrows, by Friday it was abundantly clear why the meeting couldn't be held in Baghdad รข€” the Iraqi capital is under siege. After a day of open sectarian warfare on the streets had claimed more than 200 lives, the city's airport is closed and its residents are forced to remain indoors under a curfew.

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Iraq's Violence Spins Beyond Anyone's Control




It has been clear for some time that the U.S. is not in control of events in Iraq. But the latest sectarian bloodshed suggests that even help from Iran and Syria may not be enough to stop the slide into chaos.

If this week's announcement that President Bush is to meet Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in the capital of neighboring Jordan raised eyebrows, by Friday it was abundantly clear why the meeting couldn't be held in Baghdad — the Iraqi capital is under siege. After a day of open sectarian warfare on the streets had claimed more than 200 lives, the city's airport is closed and its residents are forced to remain indoors under a curfew.

The latest carnage comes as the focus on Iraq's immediate future shifts outside its borders — to U.S. discussions over redefining its strategy, moves by Iran and Syria to stake their own claim to a role in stabilizing Iraq, and perhaps, to competition between the two camps.

President Bush is due to meet Prime Minister Maliki against a backdrop in which U.S. officials are increasingly frustrated over the failure of the Iraqi government to act against the Shi'ite militias, which are answerable to parties in the ruling coalition. Washington views the dismantling of those militias as the key to achieving national reconciliation with the Sunnis and isolating the insurgency.

But following the latest attacks, the pressure on Maliki from his own base to resist U.S. demands will likely be greater than whatever leverage President Bush can bring to bear: The Iraqi leader has long made clear that he can only move against the Shi'ite militias after the Sunni insurgent threat has been removed, and the bloodshed in Sadr City Thursday will only reinforce that point. Indeed, Sadr's party threatened to quit the government if Maliki's meeting with Bush goes ahead next week — and Sadr's support has been critical to keeping him in power.

The latest escalation in bloodshed began with a two-hour siege Thursday by Sunni gunmen on the Ministry of Health; then suspected Sunni insurgents detonated a series of bombs in crowded places in Sadr City and other Shi'ite neighborhoods that killed more than 160 people. Shi'ite militiamen retaliated by firing mortars at mosques and other targets in neighboring Sunni suburbs. And tensions were further inflamed by an incident in which U.S. troops, searching in Sadr City for a kidnapped American soldier, fired on a van that refused to slow down in response to a signal, killing four civilians. The incident, which highlighted the ongoing U.S. campaign against elements of Sadr's army who they see as responsible for much of the sectarian violence, makes life even more difficult for Maliki.

It's a safe bet that those responsible for Thursday's bombings calculated their political effect — the most extreme wing of the Sunni insurgency, which routinely engages in the mass killing of Shi'ite civilians, has no interest in the success of a national reconciliation project in which they would be the big losers. And while Iraqi leaders issued by-now routine calls for reconciliation and calm, many observers feared that Thursday's bombings could have a similar effect to the bombing of the Shi'ite shrine at Samarra in the spring, which dramatically escalated the sectarian confrontation. It will certainly take more than a curfew to stop the cycle of retribution.

Iranian leaders, meanwhile, will host Iraq's President Jalal Talabani — with Syrian leaders possibly in attendance — on Saturday, in an initiative designed to showcase Iran's intention of playing a positive role in Iraq; the meeting will also not so subtly make the point that Tehran doesn't need Washington's permission to get involved. But even though Iran traditionally wields greater influence over the Shi'ite parties that dominate Iraq's government, it may have little to offer in the immediate crisis of sectarian escalation. Likewise Syria, whose contribution would be largely to tighten border security to prevent the trickle of foreign jihadists into the territory of its neighbor, may not be able to effect events on the ground as much it might like to think.

Iraq, after all, is already awash with weapons and fighters. And even the extent to which the Shi'ite political leadership is able to restrain the militias on the streets is an open question. Despite the best efforts of various, contending regional powers to shape events in Iraq, the escalating violence puts the momentum in the hands of Iraq's own contending factions. And their prospects for agreeing to a formula that can reverse the slide into full-scale civil war are not bright.

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Lebanon Buries a Dream

As Pierre Gemayel is laid to rest and pro- and anti-Syrian factions square off for a confrontation, the modern Lebanese state appears to be on life-support.


The rituals of martyrdom are sadly familiar to the Lebanese: Barely hours after the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, billboard-sized posters with his portrait began appearing, as if, like obituary editors at a newspaper, Lebanese political parties keep the obligatory martyr poster of their leaders ready for the inevitable.


Thursday's funeral for Gemayel, one of Lebanon's most prominent Christian politicians, was burdened by more than a little bit of djvu. Gemayel is the latest of the country's anti-Syrian leaders to have died in a spate of assassinations which began last February with the car-bomb killing of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. As if in a repeat performance of the demonstrations that followed the Hariri funeral, hundreds of thousands of protestors filled central Beirut waving Lebanese flags and carrying catchy anti-Syrian slogans written in English. "Syria'l Killing Regime: Enough," read one.

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Lebanon Buries a Dream




As Pierre Gemayel is laid to rest and pro- and anti-Syrian factions square off for a confrontation, the modern Lebanese state appears to be on life-support.

The rituals of martyrdom are sadly familiar to the Lebanese: Barely hours after the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, billboard-sized posters with his portrait began appearing, as if, like obituary editors at a newspaper, Lebanese political parties keep the obligatory martyr poster of their leaders ready for the inevitable.

Thursday's funeral for Gemayel, one of Lebanon's most prominent Christian politicians, was burdened by more than a little bit of djvu. Gemayel is the latest of the country's anti-Syrian leaders to have died in a spate of assassinations which began last February with the car-bomb killing of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. As if in a repeat performance of the demonstrations that followed the Hariri funeral, hundreds of thousands of protestors filled central Beirut waving Lebanese flags and carrying catchy anti-Syrian slogans written in English. "Syria'l Killing Regime: Enough," read one.

But to a foreign observer, there was something startling about Friday's medieval pageantry. Inside the Maronite Catholic Cathedral of St. George, Lebanon's great and good gathered with their armed entourages in tow, like feudal barons reaffirming alliances over the body of a fallen comrade. Amid the burning incense and chants in arcane Assyrian, bishops stood beside generals, cowled monks hovered near women wearing black suits and sunglasses, in an epic panorama of old fashioned power politics.

In times of crisis, the Lebanese fall back on they institutions they know and trust — family, tribe, sect. And the anti-Syrian coalition is running scared. One priest captured the mood when his homily referred to the Crucifixion of Christ as a reminder that "we are all sheep waiting to be slaughtered." The day's events provided ample evidence that the modern Lebanese state — at the best of times a fragile French colonial bequest — is in crisis. The President of the Republic, the pro-Syrian Christian Emile Lahoud, was conspicuously absent from the funeral. Though the Lebanese Army and security services were out in force all over Beirut, individual bodyguards representing nothing more than the scion of some powerful family could be seen braying orders to gray-haired police generals. Even Gemayel's casket showed signs of schizophrenia — half-draped in the Lebanese cedar tree flag, half-covered by the flag of the Phalange, the Christian party he led.

A weakened Lebanese state is not, of course, what Gemayel's supporters and the other allies of anti-Syrian Prime Minister Fouad Siniora want. Their efforts after the Hariri assassination pushed the Syrian army out of Lebanon, ending an occupation that began in 1976. And they hope that the United Nations' investigations into the assassinations that have plagued Lebanon will remove what they see as the dread hand of Syria's intelligence services from its hold on Lebanese affairs. Speakers at today's funeral called on protestors to remain in Beirut's Martyr's Square until the establishment of just such a UN tribunal.

But the pro- and anti- Syrian divide in Lebanon has taken on a sectarian tone, which bodes ill for a country that is an amalgam of rival religious groups with a history of civil strife. Though the anti-Syrian Siniora government is backed by a coalition of Sunni Muslims, Druze Muslims, and many Christians, Lebanon's Shi'ite Muslims, the country's largest sect, have long looked to Syria for protection and patronage. Syria supplies Hizballah, the largest Shi'ite party, with money and weapons that it uses to fight Israel. Hizballah suspects Siniora's anti-Syrian crusade to be a cover for collaborating with Israel and the United States to disarm it. There was not a Shi'ite banner or headscarf in sight in the crowd outside the Gemayel funeral.

But there will be plenty in Beirut soon. Hizballah has promised its own demonstrations, aimed at bringing down Sinoira's government and replacing it with a government of "National Unity" in which they are better represented, as a reward for their so called "Divine Victory" against Israel this summer. The prospect of demonstrations and counterdemonstrations paralyzing the country has each side declaring that its intentions are peaceful, but preparing for the opposite.

"We are ready for them," said an official in Gemayel's Phalangist party. "We don't have weapons, and rockets and artillery like they do. But when went through a 15-year civil war and we know how to fight. We don't want to. But we are ready to."

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Today in history - Nov. 24

The Associated Press

Today is Friday, Nov. 24, the 328th day of 2006. There are 37 days left in the year.

Today's Highlight in History:

On Nov. 24, 1963, Jack Ruby shot and mortally wounded Lee Harvey Oswald, the accused assassin of President Kennedy, in a scene captured on live television.

On this date:

In 1784, Zachary Taylor, the 12th president of the United States, was born in Orange County, Va.

In 1859, British naturalist Charles Darwin published "On the Origin of Species," which explained his theory of evolution.

In 1863, the Civil War battle for Lookout Mountain began in Tennessee; Union forces succeeded in taking the mountain from the Confederates.

In 1944, during World War II, U.S. bombers based on Saipan attacked Tokyo in the first raid against the Japanese capital by land-based planes.

In 1950, the musical "Guys and Dolls," based on the writings of Damon Runyon and featuring songs by Frank Loesser, opened on Broadway.

In 1969, Apollo 12 splashed down safely in the Pacific.

In 1971, hijacker "D.B. Cooper" parachuted from a Northwest Airlines 727 over Washington state with $200,000 in ransom — his fate remains unknown.

In 1985, the hijacking of an EgyptAir jetliner parked on the ground in Malta ended violently as Egyptian commandos stormed the plane. Fifty-eight people died in the raid, in addition to two others killed by the hijackers.

In 1987, the United States and the Soviet Union agreed to scrap shorter- and medium-range missiles.

In 1991, rock singer Freddie Mercury died in London at age 45 of AIDS-related pneumonia.

Ten years ago: On the eve of an Asia-Pacific trade conference in the Philippines, President Clinton met with Chinese President Jiang Zemin. Both sides signaled their troubled relations were on the mend, and agreed to exchange presidential visits over the next two years.

Five years ago: A Swiss airliner carrying 33 people crashed near Zurich, killing 24, including American pop singer Melanie Thornton. British actress Rachel Gurney, who played Lady Marjorie Bellamy on the popular television series "Upstairs Downstairs," died at age 81.

One year ago: A suicide bomber struck outside a hospital south of Baghdad while U.S. troops were handing out candy and food to children; the blast killed some 30 people. A giant balloon in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York snagged a street light and caused part of it to fall, injuring a woman and a child. Actor Pat Morita died in Las Vegas at age 73.

Today's Birthdays: Columnist William F. Buckley is 81. Country singer Johnny Carver is 66. Rock-and-roll drummer Pete Best is 65. Rock musician Donald "Duck" Dunn (Booker T. & the MG's) is 65. Actor-comedian Billy Connolly is 64. Former White House news secretary Marlin Fitzwater is 64. Motion Picture Association of America President Dan Glickman is 62. Singer Lee Michaels is 61. Actor Dwight Schultz is 59. Actor Stanley Livingston is 56. Rock musician Clem Burke (Blondie; The Romantics) is 51. Record producer Terry Lewis is 50. Actress Denise Crosby is 49. Actress Shae D'Lyn is 44. Rock musician John Squire (The Stone Roses) is 44. Rock musician Gary Stonadge (Big Audio) is 44. Rock musician Chad Taylor (Live) is 36. Actress Lola Glaudini is 35. Actor Colin Hanks is 29. Actress Katherine Heigl is 28.

Thought for Today: "Slander injures three: the slanderer, the person who hears the slander, and the person slandered." — From the Talmud, a collection of writings that constitute the Jewish civil and religious law.

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Today in history - Nov. 24

Today is Friday, Nov. 24, the 328th day of 2006. There are 37 days left in the year.


Today's Highlight in History:


On Nov. 24, 1963, Jack Ruby shot and mortally wounded Lee Harvey Oswald, the accused assassin of President Kennedy, in a scene captured on live television.


On this date:


In 1784, Zachary Taylor, the 12th president of the United States, was born in Orange County, Va.


In 1859, British naturalist Charles Darwin published "On the Origin of Species," which explained his theory of evolution.


In 1863, the Civil War battle for Lookout Mountain began in Tennessee; Union forces succeeded in taking the mountain from the Confederates.

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